Thread: IT Sector Revisited

Run with the steam!
Buy -hotel leela & oswal chemical & fert.for one week.
Buy -idbi for two days.

In view of rupee turning weaker as FIIs are on selling spree and taking dollars out, here's the latest table:

...............7 Nov 07........15 Nov 07........20 Nov 07
1$ = ..........Rs. 39.15 .......Rs. 39.28 .......Rs. 39.38
------------------------------------------------------------
3IINFOTECH.....129.85 (SS)......127.75 (H).......133.95 (SB)
APTECHT........358.50 (SS)......376.40 (SB)......395.95 (SB)
INFOSYSTCH....1745.90 (SS).....1647.30 (SS).....1565.70 (SS)
MINDTREE.......433.20 (SS)......447.20 (SS)......432.05 (SS)
MOSERBAER......269.05 (S).......276.40 (SB)......276.95 (SB)
MPHASIS........288.00 (H).......276.50 (SS)......277.65 (SS)
NIITTECH.......270.35 (SS)......250.80 (SS)......240.00 (SS)
PATNI..........328.60 (SS)......313.60 (SS)......318.05 (SS)
POLARIS........102.50 (SS)......105.45 (H).......109.80 (H)
ROLTA..........696.50 (S).......713.80 (SS)......698.25 (H)
SATYAMCOMP.....436.00 (H).......428.75 (SS)......418.15 (S)
TCS............997.05 (S).......980.20 (SS)......961.35 (SS)
TECHM.........1054.25 (H)......1035.20 (SS).....1040.70 (SS)
TULIP..........924.25 (H).......925.35 (SB)......960.35 (SB)
WIPRO..........477.25 (H).......457.20 (SS)......448.30 (SS)

B=Buy, SB=Strong Buy, H=Hold, S=Sell, SS=Strong Sell

Along with AptechT, MoserBaer, Tulip, now 3iinfotech turns SB. Polaris and Rolta could also start running up as rupee depreciates further. AptechT and TulipIT volumes have gone up significantly. It seems FED has approved Dr. Ravi Batra's warnings about dollar value, and may be set to RAISE interest rate! In the long run, it may be a better for USA which is showing very storng signs of recession now. I am sure there is money in this data for us.
Paresh

can the above analysis be trusted ? will the IT stocks never bounce back ?

Sorry for not replying to your query before, but I have been away from the markets (& this forum). I am not currently tracking IT sector which I did for awhile as you can see from my posts. I have results that I stored away in January also - but they paint a gloomy picture for now.

With a weak dollar almost a certainty now, RBI has decided a wait and watch policy till after the budget announcements. But if you want my opinion, I see rupee gradually gaining strength no matter what RBI tries to do. Which would mean that our IT companies will have to increasingly look for expansion of the domestic market. The excitement is definitely gone from their shares.

This could be a challenging time, but also a time to seek out opportunities for our IT co.s. All the best.
Paresh

........................13 Dec 07......18 Jan 08......17 Mar 08
1$ = ...................Rs. 39.29......Rs. 39.16......Rs. 40.65
Nifty.....................6058.10........5705.30.. ......4503.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3IINFOTECH (70 - 164)......140.55 (H).....131.50 (SS).....91.25 (SS)
APTECHT (133 - 450)........413.00 (H).....315.35 (SS)....167.25 (SS)
INFOSYSTCH (1255 - 2156)..1659.95 (SS)...1468.40 (SS)...1337.80 (SS)
MINDTREE (290 - 940).......480.10 (S).....436.40 (SS)....333.95 (S)
MOSERBAER (135 - 345)......291.95 (H).....251.90 (H).....138.25 (SS)
MPHASIS (175 - 341)........284.10 (SS)....271.50 (H).....175.75 (SS)
NIITTECH (92 - 425)........238.30 (SB)....187.55 (SS).....95.40 (SS)
PATNI (170 - 599)..........327.65 (H).....260.15 (SS)....197.25 (SS)
POLARIS (62 - 207).........121.10 (H).....110.05 (SS).....74.65 (SS)
ROLTA (158 - 396)..........727.40 (SS)....689.15 (H).....265.40 (SS)
SATYAMCOMP (305 - 523).....420.60 (SS)....374.00 (SS)....366.35 (H)
TCS (725 - 1330)..........1029.60 (S).....903.20 (SS)....791.85 (SS)
TECHM (575 - 1729)........1129.75 (S).....906.70 (SS)....620.30 (SS)
TULIP (556 - 1168).........941.90 (H).....922.25 (SS)....953.15 (SS)
WIPRO (324 - 635)..........500.45 (H).....454.35 (H).....354.10 (SS)

(short term calls - buzzingstocks (dot) com)
B=Buy, SB=Strong Buy, H=Hold, S=Sell, SS=Strong Sell

A 'crisis of confidence' in the market means nobody cares about Rupee-dollar exchange rate right now! As more bad news keep coming from US, Nifty is going lower and lower still. Those in RED are at or near their 1-yr low. When buying interest resumes, some of these SHOULD go up first.
Just FYI

Paresh

........................13 Dec 07......18 Jan 08......17 Mar 08........31 Mar 08
1$ = ...................Rs. 39.29......Rs. 39.16......Rs. 40.65........Rs. 39.88
Nifty.....................6058.10........5705.30.. ......4503.10........ 4734.50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3IINFOTECH (70 - 164)......140.55 (H).....131.50 (SS).....91.25 (SS).......98.90 (H)
APTECHT (133 - 450)........413.00 (H).....315.35 (SS)....167.25 (SS)......222.10 (SB)
INFOSYSTCH (1255 - 2156)..1659.95 (SS)...1468.40 (SS)...1337.80 (SS).....1439.90 (SB)
MINDTREE (290 - 890).......480.10 (S).....436.40 (SS)....333.95 (S).......335.10 (SS)
MOSERBAER (119 - 345)......291.95 (H).....251.90 (H).....138.25 (SS)......152.15 (H)
MPHASIS (150 - 341)........284.10 (SS)....271.50 (H).....175.75 (SS)......201.75 (SB)
NIITTECH (85 - 425)........238.30 (SB)....187.55 (SS).....95.40 (SS)......101.90 (H)
PATNI (170 - 599)..........327.65 (H).....260.15 (SS)....197.25 (SS)......222.30 (SB)
POLARIS (62 - 207).........121.10 (H).....110.05 (SS).....74.65 (SS).......78.60 (H)
ROLTA (158 - 396)..........727.40 (SS)....689.15 (H).....265.40 (SS)......261.35 (SS)
SATYAMCOMP (305 - 523).....420.60 (SS)....374.00 (SS)....366.35 (H).......396.35 (SS)
TCS (725 - 1330)..........1029.60 (S).....903.20 (SS)....791.85 (SS)......810.45 (SS)
TECHM (575 - 1729)........1129.75 (S).....906.70 (SS)....620.30 (SS)......705.25 (SB)
TULIP (575 - 1168).........941.90 (H).....922.25 (SS)....953.15 (SS)......855.40 (SS)
WIPRO (324 - 635)..........500.45 (H).....454.35 (H).....354.10 (SS)......432.10 (SB)

(52 wk low-high in parentheses)
(numbers and short term calls - buzzingstocks (dot) com)
B=Buy, SB=Strong Buy, H=Hold, S=Sell, SS=Strong Sell

Although the IT sector at year ending is near its bottom, some of them have turned SBs.
With Rupee slated to go down to 41/42 levels, SBs shld show price hikes in the short term.
SB means one can buy in small quantities of 25% to 50% of what they want to buy in that scrip.

Paresh

An interesting recent report from ABN Amro.


We expect muted volume growth in 4Q 08 even as the sharp INR fall
helps margins. Looking forward, even a conservative 16-17% FY09
EPS growth guidance from Infosys should allay concerns about the
'worst-case' demand outlook and revive interest in the sector.

Key recommendations & forecasts

(Prices at close of business 2 April 2008)


1 - Normalised EPS - Post-goodwill amortisation and pre-exceptional items
* - Ratings and estimates are under review
Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts (3 April 2008)

Paresh

From now on you can use the tag [ table] ... [ /table].
Two simple example to create new table in posts using [ table] ... [ /table].

*Note: Don't use extra space in "table" tag enclosed within "[" and "]"

Code:

 
[ table]A|B|C
D|E|F
[ /table] 
 
Seperate each column by | and Press enter to create a new row...
 
Another example where the very first head row will be shown.
 
[ table="head"]H1|H2|H3 
A|B|C
D|E|F
[/ table] 
 
In this example First create the header row as shown above. 
Header row will show as H1 H2 H3 in the very first title row.

Following is the table without header

Following is the table with header

First row is the table header row which is also sortable

NOTE: IF THE HEADER ROW IS NOT VISIBLE AFTER CREATING THE TABLE AND THE REST OF THE ROWS ARE SHOWN PROPERLY THEN "REFRESH" OR "RELOAD" THE PAGE TO SEE THE CHANGES.

Thanks

these targets that u say, how long do u think it will take.