The eldergulls dairy

Date 01/30/08 time 12.51 am

Hi All,
Pls do not read too much into such things as a few points up on nifty and hundred points down on sensex. The larger pciture has to be understood. I for one think that either i get a sell signal on my system or the upmove continues and yet i am perfectly happy waiting. As i said i will wait to sell, if the markets go up. If it gives me a sell i will sell. I am not going to support the markets in the move up. And by the way i made a cool sum of money in this mayhem. I am not hungry, to go in for the kill. I will bide for my time. happy trading.

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Neeraj B


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Hey Neeraj

Could you elaborate by what you mean when you say "enter from the long side". Also can you share with us the wisdom of precisely telling when to sell , when to buy and when to keep mum. It would be a real eye opener . Tks

Date 02/01/08 time 7.26 pm

Hi Saege,
That was a really good question? what i know from my systems is that the Main trendof the market has reversed. Which means that i will be only doing selling activity from now on. But if u see days like today, where the market went up by so much, people like me are sitting by the sidelines. I dint buy a thing. I wont buy a thing. Let the others show their power to me by taking the nifty above 5550. on a closing basis in this month. when i write closing basis this month i mean let it close above 5550 on 28th of feb 2008. That way the down trend which i say has started will be reversed. What do i lose sitting out? I lose just opputunity ( lost money for not going long ) I still live with all my money intact. This very basic fact of life is quite difficult to follow for people in general. Myself and others like me i think prey on such mentality people. I am sure i have made myself very clear by what i mean by writing" show strength for me to go on the long side". also u can get in touch with me on my email address in case u wish to discuss this thing further and for some practical signals. It is outside my perview to give signals here especially when i ahve clinets who pay me to send them signals.

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Neeraj B


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Date 02/01/08 time 7.47 pm

Hi All,
Saege's question made me think about the markets for a bit more longer and this is what i feel about people in general in the markets. There are three types of people in the markets namely 1) discretionary 2) technical 3) systems oriented
Discretianry : are those who basically buy because of the misplaced concept in their minds that they understand what they r doing. They will use a varitey of tools without even a cursory acquataince with the tools to make their decisions
technical : are those who have some working knowledge, but not enough of it, of some tools which helps them make their decisions.All those who call themselves technical analysts and fundamental analysts fall in this category. They know a bit of something but they dont know it all.
systemic : are those who have thorough understanding of the tools they handle and follow strict money management principles to manage their money. Their system rules will not allow them to keep their positions open beyond the said time or money goal.
the best way to trade/ invest in the markets is by testing what u think is right for at least a thousand times on the books. If it comes out the victor then we can safely say that it is a system. Once a system is devised it should then be tested on different platforms of price. bear in mind that there is no system which can insulate u against lossess totally. it defies the rules of mathematics as the whole realm of financial instruments are a function of probabilities. when i developed my system i followed this rule too. I wonder how people can give out so called signals to the general public if they have truly the spirit in them to know it for themselves that what they ahve done is unique. I never disclose on what basis i arrive atmy buying decision fori strongly think it is unique. What i am ready to do with any technical or fundamental man is to sit with me and show me and trade with me. If anybody of u wnats to see me trade pls u r ost welcome during market hours to my place. I am nto shy of trading in front of people. i want to see all those who recommend left right and centre to others whether they r able to do the same.

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Neeraj B


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Date 02/01/08 time 8.03 pm
Hi All ,
Adding further to my earlier post i feel. It comes easily to people to recommend something. Take for example the recommendation i just saw
CAIRN BUY 195 SL 192 TGT 202,207
RPL SUPP 156,149 RESIST 168,171
this asks u to buy for today the stock of cairn. Assuming it opened at 195 and u got it. What happens if at 10.05 am it is ruling at 189. This recommendation in completely silent on that. Does this man know what it means to a person who has a position of 195 to see his stock go down to 189 within minutes of buying it. I wonder whether he does. At the end of the day the closing is 201 and the high of the day is 203. What do we see the next day
he claims his recommendation is succesful. FOOL !!!! does he have any idea of what a trader goes trough when after falling down to 189 and then taking hours to come back to 195. Well he doesnt it is my firm belief that on such days the trader makes a marginal amount of money or in most cases a loss ( a marginal of heavy one).
This brings me back to systemic trading.
There are three main facets of systemic trading
1) entry
2) target
3) stop loss
Entry " this has to be precisely defined in terms of two aspects
1) the time the stock has to be entered
2) the price the stock has to be entered at
The time has to be end of the period always. Which means it can be the end of the hour, day or week depending on the recommendation.
Target
once an entry has been taken a target needs to be set in terms of two aspects
1) The time one will stay with the trade
2) the price which we expect it to reach.
it is quinteessential to state the time it takes to achieve the target as that gives a peg or handle for the trader to exit once that time frame is reached and the target not achieved.
Stop loss
once an entry is done, the stop loss needs to be kept in mind with two aspects
1) the time we will wait for the stop loss to be hit. This has necessarily to follow the same time period as that of the target. By which i mean if it is a hourly trade it should be hourly close that will decide the stop loss, not the intra hour movement.
2) the price at which we will say to ourselves we are wrong.
These three main points are the key to systemic trading. I havent seen a recommendation in the world which gives all three points clearly. And if there are such recommendations then they do not follow it to the tee and that is their undoing.
I ahve come across so many recommendations from so many analysts who ask to buy with a 3 -6 month prespective. but i havent seen them ever come back on all that they recommend, when ever they come back they come back only with the ones which are succesful. why do they then stop recommending in the bear phase. moreover many of them claim to have deep workign knowledge of the markets surely they should maintain a list of all their recommendations and have great pride in showing it that i recommended so many things and these are the results. Well alas the loser ultimately if u out there for u fall prey by reading them and following them according to ur own sweet whims.

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Neeraj B


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Date 02/06/08 time 10.36 pm

Hi All,
saege, first and foremost heres what i meant when i wrote let them show their strength to me by closing it above 5550. See it is that difficult t take it up up and onwards. What i am about to write may confuse many of you out there. Today the market went into the sell mode. It has still not given a sell signal on the system, by which imean, one cant go short on the nifty yet. We can still initiate trades in stocks which ahve given valid sell signals. Hindunilvr, ambujacem, hindalco and bajajauto are a few stocks which ahev given valid sell signals. I am writing with teh futures segment in view ( current series). The target will be given tomorrow morning. I expect the target to be reached within 4 days. I will cover my shorts if the market were to close above a particualr level which i will post tomorrow. also i will close the trades if the stocks close above a particular level tomorrow. i will post those too tomorrow. all one needs to do tomorrow morning is to start the screen and see whether he gets the closing price of yesterday or more and sell and shut his terminal and come here and see those levelswhich i will thengive. i will be available on my gmail account for a live chat.
Now coming to the thing that will confuse most. Though several stocks have given a sell signal along with the nifty turning in the downward mode the nifty hasnt given a sell signal, which opens us to the possibility of being whipsawed. One should not be afraid of taking signals as and whenthey come. the worst that can happen is u will be stop lossed. it is something that everytrader has to live with. All one needs to do is to initiate the trade tomorrow and then see whether the levels of stop loss given are being met at the end of the day. If they r then one needs to exit whether he is at a loss of profit is immaterial.

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Neeraj B


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Date 02/06/08 time 10.48 pm

Hi All,
i know reading of my last few lines fo the earlier post will confuse u. What is a stop loss level. As i explained in one of earlier writeups, a stop loss also has two components to it, one is of time and the other if of price. Tomorrow if u get to sell say hindunilvr at more then the closingof today then u acn get stop lossed by two things. One would be that the nifty would atthe end of the day go into a buy mode again and yet ur stock is languishing and not achieved its target. Even then u will cover. Two, the stock goes up and closes above its sell level and becomes a buy which automatically would take u out. In obth the scenarios u ahve to wait till the end of the day to cut out ur position this way ur involvement in the markets is only for restrictedto two things. one, selling tomorrow in the morning and then putting a covering order at the price i will post int he morning as i have not worked out the level yet in the system, (i am yet to download the data into my package). The next thing is to start the terminal again at 12.45 and see whether the target has been achieved. The next thing would be to see what levels we r going to be stoplossed at on the nifty and stock as at the end of theday then come back towards the closing and see whether u can keep the position openof have to close it . Simple isnt it ? but alas there is so much in the name of emotion involved in between u taking the trade and u exiting. hope at least some of u go through it with me, as i said i will be available for a live chat on gmail tomorrow. i will be trading with u all if any body of u cares to join that is.

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Neeraj B


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Date 02/06/08 time 11.08 pm
Hi All,
The targets for the four stocks which i gave out today are as follows
ambuja cem 112.55
bajajauto 2254.50
hindalco 167.70
hindunilvr 194.80
This is the price that the systems tell us should be reached in another four days. The stop loss levels for each in terms of their price and the nifty level will be posted tomorrow for people who ahve taken the trade with me. I will be available for a live chat on gmail tomorrow.

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Neeraj B


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Date 02/07/08 time 12.17 pm

Hi All,
The stop loss level for nifty is at 5324.8, which means that if nifty future current one month series closes above this level then nifty is going int he buy mode again. We wil in this case have to cover our shorts which we had initiated in the four scrips that i had recommended yesterday. the individual levels for the said scrips above which a closing today will stop them out are as follows.
Hindunilvr 204
Ambujacem 117.85
Hindalco 175.10
Bajaj auto 2368

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Neeraj B


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