The eldergulls dairy

Date 07/21/08 time 10.26 am

Hi All,
Whether you know it or not, you have been trading all your life. Sure, you may have never traded a contract of Nifty Futures, but you have almost certainly traded a possession like a car, house for someone else's money or possession. If you have done that, for sure you have traded time for money. You have traded your time as a teacher, lawyer, esate agent for someone else's money. So, you are halfway there. you just never knew it!

When we trade our time, we are actually trading our time plus our skills. That is why a brain surgeon gets more per hour than a knee surgeon. That is also why an outstanding batsman gets more than a mediocore one. He has a greater career risk. It is not that one skill is inherently more valuable than the other, it is that one is more difficult to come by and carries higher risk. This characteristic generates more money for the person selling his or her time and skills. There is no intrinsic value to Sachins batting skills, but the owner of theIndian Team ( Sahara ) saw an opportunity to make a great deal of money with those seemingly valueless skills by.packing stadiums and getting television revenues. Thus, something of “no value” may have great value.
I make this point by, placing a personal cheque of mine in a sealed envelope and then added it to 14 similar envelopes in a clear plastic bag. My friends each had the opportunity to reach in and draw out an envelope. The person who drew the one with the Rs5,000 cheque would be allowed to keep it.The bag contained 14 worthless envelopes, but suddenly they had value Although all but one were empty, there was a 1 in 15 chance of Winning Rs5,000; thus each envelope, or opportunity to take out an envelope. Was worth Rs333.33. Once the participants began taking envelopes out of the bag,those empty, worthless envelopes gained in value. After all, once five empty envelopes were removed, there was now a 1 in 10 chance and the value had risen to Rs500. When just two envelopes were left in the bag, friends were willing to pay Rs2,500 to dip their hand in and pull out an envelope! Suddenly,what was worthless had great value!
That is your first lesson in becoming a more aggressive trader. Value, like beauty, is in themind of the beholder. As a trader, the lesson is never to second-guess what value really is: it is what themarket will pay. It (the market or collective judgment of other traders) may not pay that value for long, butprice is King, it is what is. I learned long ago not to argue with what is.
Reflecting on this experience over the years has enabled me to formulate two important rules. The first is that value is ephemeral: it can be anything, and anything can and will happen in trading commodities, or stocks for that matter.The second rule, which carries greater weight is that although market trend and direction are major concerns, knowing how to deal with Your resources has the highest priority.
You never know when the markets will do what you think they are supposed to do. Many times, like God, the market does not deny, it just delays. Serious traders weave protection against this delay into the fabric of their program. There is no greater rule to learn than that of money management. All the horrorstories you have heard about commodity trading are true. Good people, like my blog friend Paresh Kapadia, have been totally wiped out by doing the wrong thing. That wrong thing has never been the market, nor the fact the trader made a bad call. Indeed, every successful trader will have bad calls, losing trades. And lots of them.
The wipeouts you have heard about, every single one of them, have come from placing too large a bet on a trade or holding on to a losing position too long. The sooner you learn to master your defeats, the sooner you will be on your way to amass the wealth possible in this business. It is your failures, not your successes that kill you in this business. Failures do not build character, they destroy your bank account.The foundation to all your success is in the preceding paragraph. Psychics may or may not be able to predict the market, value may or may not prevail. The world of speculation is about predicting the future and that is difficult at best. The fabled United States military complex, which had supposedly bankrolled the brightest of the bright, and thousands of intelligence officers, was not able to predict the fall of the Twin World towers So how can you and I hope to do better?

__________________
sinn fien

Neeraj B


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Date 07/21/08 time 10.31 am

Hi All,
We were already out of bharti and rpl on frfiday, today we r also out of hdfc which we bought at 2071, we got out at 2120. The movement from here on will be a tricky one. There will not be any shorts which can built up. Joining the bulls will be equally difficult. On my systems i have two stocks on watch out for 11.00 am closing, they r infosys and wipro.
If anybody of u reading this is interested in knowing more about what happens to these stocks, pls write in to me at teh email address given below. I am generally alwasy online on my messenger.

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Neeraj B


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Date 07/22/08 time 10.14 am

Hi All,
Prices often tell the story ahead of the event. Yes we too strongly believe in that. The prices favour the bull in the next two days at least. The level of 4192 is a crucial level for the nifty, if it manages to remain above that level for any hourly closing then it is going to be surely going in favour of the bulls. The stock to look out for is BHEL.

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Neeraj B


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Date 07/23/08 time 8.06 am

Hi All,
The day thoroughly belonged to the bulls. What does it hold for us who trade on a day to day basis in the markets. Yesterday we had given four calls and three of them went of well. The one stock which failed to come up to our expectations was Bhel. How ironic that yesterday i had recommended for that one stock here in my write up. This is the essence of trading. U think one thing will happen but something else happens.
Even today the same logic holds good. Everybody is now looking forwardto the markets just becasue there has been a rally in the last three days. Remember this is a bear market and rallies can just fizzile out for no rhyme or reason. Be careful of taking up long positions. It can be a very tricky day out there.
For a free one on one with me i will be available on my yahoo id

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Neeraj B


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date 08/06/08 time 9.50 pm

Hi All,
The way the markets opened today must have been pleasing to one and all. It was expected, what wasnt tough was the way it behaved after that. A possible top formation is in place. This will be difficult for the markets to break through. Time will tell.

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Neeraj B


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Date 08/08/08 time 6:51 pm

Hi All,
The day started quite sedate again. The attempt today by bulls to make it up to yesterdays high was commendable. In between that it gave a signal in Hdfcbank, Hdfc and Nifty itself. Hdfcbank achieved its target of 1.50 %. Hdfc and nifty though did not. Hdfc was squared off at cost and Nifty was covered at a loss of Rs 20 ( including brokerage ). There after at 2.00 pm the market made a final attempt to take out the high and closed at 4493 from there on the bulls simply lost it, its hard to say whether it was the bears that took control or the bulls who gave way, whichever way it was the writing is finally on the wall, this upmove is coming to an end. The fall from here would determine whether we will get out of the woods ( read a bear phase ) by end october at least. This fall for all of us is going to be crucial. It will determine whether this bear phase ends in this calender year. We start this ride down with our fingers crossed. We Cross fingers not because we r in doubt about the fall, we cross because we do not want it to test the bottom, for if it does. the we have had it.

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Neeraj B


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Date 08/08/08 time 10.16 am

Hi ALl,
The opening today has been sedate again. But the chances that one will get a buy on the systems are dwindling now. The niftygoes into a houlry buy mode above a closing of 4552 at 11.00 am. Mind u this is just a turn around it is not a signal to buy. One more thing is that yesterday we had a buy in nifty failing so that will act as resistance. The better thing to do would be to just wait for it to give individual stock sells and participate in it. A closing anyhour below 4492 will precipitate a fall as it goes into a sell mode below that level on day charts. Happy trading
If anybody of u is interested in knowing why i do what i dopls feel free to send us a message "profit" by adding our yahoo id:
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Neeraj B


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Date 08/08/08 time 6.45pm

Hi All,
Though the markets slipped in the morning itself it was not able to go below the level of 4492 on a hourly closing level. This level was a crucial one for the nifty fut today as a close on any hour below that would have taken it down further. This level though was broken twicec oncee during the very first hour and then again between 12 and 1 pm. Yet both the selling signals we got today were stopped out ( sbin -1481 covered at 1499 and Itc -190.60 and covered at 190.10). Though in the day it was bad for shorts one thing is getting clear that the rally will have a hard time going over the level of 4625.
The next week is going to be crucial for if the markets have to sustain the upmove they will have go up with a force, any creep up to the level of 4625 is going to be met with aggrressive shorts, who can easily find a escape even if they r going to get caught. So one needs to be careful in planning ones trades, but if u r long then pls cross ur fingers and sit through the weekend. The coming week will possibly require ur prayers to be heard by God up there. And even if he decides to side up with the bulls, i guess the good old bear will do the trick in the coming week. God on his side or not does not matter, i think the bear is truly focussed and is bound to lead the charge.

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Neeraj B


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Date 08/13/08 time 11.24 am

Hi All,
The markets today are very sedate, they opened lower because of the overhang of the US markets. They have for now shown strength and made it back to where they were yesterday. The journey from here on will be a very crucial one. It is like the last hundred odd steps of a great temple that we go to. The worst part, and which requires mentioning here is that even after u climb it, the only way to go after darshan is down.
There in lies the larger message of this post.

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Neeraj B


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