The eldergulls dairy

date 09/19/07 time 9.45 am

Hi all,
we r into sbin and icici, I for one have taken only icicibank and will be following up on that. The target for it today is 952.25 and iwill take u all through it for sure. The first rule as i mentioned earlier is to safegaurd ur capital and that will be our first aim when the markets open today. Yesterday i sat watching the Nasdaq to see hwo they r performing and it was quite okay from our standpoint. I will post today in my blog what needs to be done about other stocks too today.
One should remember that once we r into a position, our world zeros in on that particular positio and the rest of the world shouhld not matter to us. I knwo there will be a few of u who will think that by doing this we will miss out on oppurtunities, but then i say to u all thats exactly what we lose oppurtunity. We still shall survive for our signals the next time. My exp over the last 18 years tells me that the iwse hunt occasionally. Deepika askeed me to give her some trading ideas. so deepika i suggest that u read my blog. i give my trading ideas there. and follow them up to their conclusion. the only problem i am too busy with the development of my systems and hecn concecntrate on only 14 top weights of the nifty. The markets are about to open and i want to be watching it. when isay watching i will do two things. i will first key in an order to sell my icici at 952.25 and then see how the stock is doing for the next twenty minutes. so i will post round about 10.25 next in my blog.

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Neeraj B


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Neeraj B


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date 09/19/07 time 2.41 pm

Hi all,
Rcom has been keeping up on the right track. It is quoting at 560.70 and is very nicely placed. The only problem now would be that scare which is likely to set in by profit takers after 3.00 pm. Lets us all hope that it does not dip below 556 in that mad rush. If it does not that means that the weak hands have crossed their holdings with the strong. It will be heartening then to watch it sail from there on.

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Neeraj B


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date 09/19/07 time 3.04 pm

Hi all,
after yesterdays flight, today it seems we r again in for another one. Rarely does it happen that we have to fly like this back to back. But if it si calling us then the markets have to be respected. I have picked up Rcom at 558 it is now quoting at 567. I think it will settle down in the range of 561-564 and will be a excellent buy. Having said that it is importat that the first thing we do tomorrow is think about a plan to safegaurd our capital tomorrow. Well but lets cross the bridge when we come to it isnt it ?. Adios for now.

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Neeraj B


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date 09/19/07 time 3.04 pm

Hi all,
after yesterdays flight, today it seems we r again in for another one. Rarely does it happen that we have to fly like this back to back. But if it si calling us then the markets have to be respected. I have picked up Rcom at 558 it is now quoting at 567. I think it will settle down in the range of 561-564 and will be a excellent buy. Having said that it is importat that the first thing we do tomorrow is think about a plan to safegaurd our capital. Well but lets cross the bridge when we come to it isnt it ?. Adios for now.

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Neeraj B


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Date 09/19/07 time 4.31 pm

Hi all,
the target for Rcom tomorrow as per my systems will be 583.15. I for one will start the day tomorrow by keeping a selling order at that price. Then like i said today the next thing will be to observe what ir does in the first 20 minutes as that determies how it is going to go about. So the works cut out for me tomorrow.
The first rule after taking any position is to find out the pricec at which u will want to exit, which in this case is 583.15. The second thing to do is to decide, time wise, if this position is not achieved what to do. and thridly is to follow it closely so that there is no price reversal which leaves u high and dry. After all it takes a great effort to excute trades and the money that we earn is nothing but the markets way of remunerating us for the hard work that goes into the analysis. see u so long

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Neeraj B


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date 09/19/07 time 6.36 pm

Hi all,
i was just talking to friend of mine who is a big critic of me as a person and what he told me today when i told him that i had taken a position in Rcom is pertinent. He siad" There is something that u r forgetting Neeraj, you should expect the uunexpected in this busines: expect the extreme. Dont think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do. If there is any lesson that i have learnt in the twenty years that i have been in this business, it is that the unexpected and the impossible happen every now and then in this busines"
Really nice words, the next thing i know is i take his leave and here i am in front of my pc penning it down for posterity. Golden words they say are never repeated again. We ahve now think of what the unexpeected can be, if it is good then w dont have to worry much as our orders will get hit tomorrow, but if it is bad we need to plan for that. I think the first hour or so is going to be important from our position poit of view and any dip below 557 has to be clearly watched very carefully. Its not to mean that one gets out but one has to be on ones gaurd when Rcom tomorrow touches 557 in the first hour, if it touches that point that is.

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Neeraj B


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date 09/19/07 time 7.33 pm

Hi all,
Emotions are totally counterproductive in trading. Trading decisions should be maded as unemotionally as posiible. Yes i can see all those smiles on ur faces thinking " we all know that dude but how do we d that, its our money on line not urs"....isnt it ?
You have to maintain prespective. There is more to life than trading. Also, to me, being emotionally deflateed would mean lacking confidence in what i am doing. I acoid that because i have always felt that it is misleading to focus on short term results.
I avoid the emotional elation when things are going well. Answer this honestly to your own self's. How many times have we done this. Not to mention our profits to somebody when we have made them. and how many times have we hidden our true lossess. I can be honest that in my formative years i never told anybody about my losess but bragged big time about my profits ( i guess we all learn being unemotional towards the end of our respective lives). What i do to overcome being emotional is to be hidden frfom everybody when i am trading. that way i have learnt to keep things in prespective for u can lie to everyone around u but u cant lie to ur own self for too long.

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Neeraj B


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date 09/19/07 time 7.59 pm

Hi all,
Time frames are an essential ingredient in trading as they figure into every trade. A successful trader must respect the potential for every trade to either go up or go down. Depending upon ones time frame, it may go up for a while, and then down and then back up again or vice versa. Whether you stay with a trade or abort depends upon your time frame. Ignore the time frame and you are ignoring a key piece of the trading puzzle.
Imagine one has two trading opportunities, both of which are equal in all respects, save one -- the time it takes to complete the trade. One trade takes two days, while the other takes two weeks.
Further imagine that one has the opportunity for one year to repeat the same trades with the same results -- 50% of the time the trade results in a Rs200 gain and 50% of the time the trade results in a Rs100 loss. For the sake of simplicity, let's further assume that the trader must use all available capital to complete the trades each time they are made. Which set of trades offer the greater return?
When annualized, the two day trade makes a ton more money than the two week trade since you can turn the money over 130 times in a year (this assumes roughly 260 trading days in a year) compared to 26 times for the two week trade. The two day trade racks up Rs6500 in profits while the two week trade gains a mere Rs130 (Note that if the trader consistently loses more than they make, then they will be out of business quite a bit faster also).
The moot point above is the word "successful" trader. For being successful u ahve to be based on some sound logic and that exists nowhere in the human brain, its all there in the numbers ( read price ). If only one understood "risk" it would all seem so easy.

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Neeraj B


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